Economic Modeling of Irrigation Water Demand to Advance Watershed Planning in Montana
Water management in Montana faces rising challenges. Recent droughts and low snow levels have raised concerns about the reliability of future water supplies and the economic impacts to crop and livestock production (Van Emon, 2022). Meanwhile, population growth and demand for recreation and conservation are leading to growing conflict among competing uses of water. These challenges make it increasingly valuable to develop sophisticated water resource management models that can be used for forecasting, watershed planning, and developing management strategies. Many water resource management models are highly sophisticated on the water supply side, incorporating detailed and up-to-date hydrological science, yet the demand side of these models largely remains limited to static estimates of water use. They typically do not model the underlying socioeconomic drivers of water use nor allow for feedback between water use and water availability. These drivers and feedback are especially consequential and complex in irrigated agriculture. Demand for irrigation depends on a wide range of factors, including weather as well as cropping patterns, output prices, technology, water availability, and water management policies.
This project will begin to address the gap in understanding water demand in Montana, contributing to the long-term goal of integrating economic water demand models with hydrologic models. Work during this seed grant will focus on three main objectives: (1) developing longitudinal field-level estimates of consumptive water use for irrigation, (2) spatially linking water rights records with water use estimates, and (3) developing tailored statistical models that can used to quantify how water use responds to key environmental, economic, and social drivers.
Dr. Hagerty is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics at Montana State University. His research investigates how people respond to environmental change and how policy design can help people to better adapt. He focuses on water resources and agriculture in the western United States and in India.
Dr. Cheu is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics at Montana State University. His research focuses on agricultural policies and farmers’ on-farm management decision-making, including irrigation decisions and conservation practice adoption.